Does it feel like you knew what the result would be?.
Think about some recent sporting events or market gyrations: The two hindsight bias examples above are among the most common, but hindsight bias can occur after any decision. The real story is that we feel confident when looking back but uncertain when looking forward, even though the difficulty of predicting events has not changed. Until it has happened the result is uncertain. The problem with this is that the outcome of an event is only apparent after the fact. Of course we all knew that the DotCom bubble was going to burst, and years later we all knew that the crazy prices of real estate were going to collapse. Similar to sporting events we tend to look at previous ups and downs of the market as predictable. In retrospect it is easy to see mistakes and point them out. Fans and commentators alike enjoy picking apart the decisions of the players after the game has finished. Hindsight Bias ExamplesĪ typical example of hindsight bias is all the second-guessing that occurs after a sporting event. Since we know how the event turned out we can see the whole story from start to finish, which makes us think the story was predictable back when it first started. Hindsight bias is a filter our brains use to tell us that events in the past follow a logical pattern. Our brains prefer that events make sense, that they tell a story that fits with our view of how the world works.
Read on to learn why and to see some hindsight bias examples. Hindsight bias is a Cognitive Bias where the human brain tends to see events in the past as more predictable than they actually were at the time. In short, when we think about something that has already happened we tend to believe the outcome was obvious. You’ve heard that phrase a lot, but did you know it is based on a fluke in how your brain thinks about the past?
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